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10/14 Hawks vs Preds

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Wasn't Saad's overtime goal a lot like Hossa's over time goal in the playoffs against the Preds a few years ago?  Baby Hossa is blossoming into the Real Hossa me thinks.

 

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puterwiz52 said on 12 minutes ago:

Wasn't Saad's overtime goal a lot like Hossa's over time goal in the playoffs against the Preds a few years ago?  Baby Hossa is blossoming into the Real Hossa me thinks.

 

pretty sure saad skated directly from the bench whereas hoss skated directly from the box, so yeah.

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The first 8 games were gonna be a measuring stick,9pts in the bank with 4 left on the table. The Oil got run outta their own building by the eastern conference juggernaut otherwise known as the Ottawa Senators tonight,somebody better tell the league how fast they are or are they just unmotivated? The Caps coulda used some self respect tonight too.

The Hawks were gaining momentum when they tied it up against the Wild ......can't win em all! 

Gotta find a way to get Big John more than 9 minutes a game as far as I'm concerned.

Did anyone actually expect better than 4-1-1 at this point? This naïve homer didn't.

 

GO HAWKS!!!!!

Edited by hsbob
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Points in the standings are important, obviously. But I think almost as important is how well they play, and they haven't played that well in the last couple games. I don't know why, but their execution has been poor. They haven't played well enough to be 4-1-1 right now and if it wasn't for Crawford playing as well as he has - they wouldn't be 4-1-1 right now.

The have to tighten things - PP and passing drills are needed.

Hopefully Schmaltz is back next game, and hopefully he resembles the same guy we saw before he got his bell rung.

Edited by EbonyRaptor

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EbonyRaptor said on 13 minutes ago:

Points in the standings are important, obviously. But I think almost as important is how well they play, and they haven't played that well in the last couple games. I don't know why, but their execution has been poor. They haven't played well enough to be 4-1-1 right now and if it wasn't for Crawford playing as well as he has - they wouldn't be 4-1-1 right now.

The have to tighten things - PP and passing drills are needed.

Hopefully Schmaltz is back next game, and hopefully he resembles the same guy we saw before he got his bell rung.

I find it encouraging that they're 4-1-1 without playing their best hockey,playing well and losing doesn't do much for me.

 

GO HAWKS!!!!! 

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hsbob said on 10 hours ago:

The first 8 games were gonna be a measuring stick,9pts in the bank with 4 left on the table. The Oil got run outta their own building by the eastern conference juggernaut otherwise known as the Ottawa Senators tonight,somebody better tell the league how fast they are or are they just unmotivated? The Caps coulda used some self respect tonight too.

The Hawks were gaining momentum when they tied it up against the Wild ......can't win em all! 

Gotta find a way to get Big John more than 9 minutes a game as far as I'm concerned.

Did anyone actually expect better than 4-1-1 at this point? This naïve homer didn't.

 

GO HAWKS!!!!!

 

EbonyRaptor said on 10 hours ago:

Points in the standings are important, obviously. But I think almost as important is how well they play, and they haven't played that well in the last couple games. I don't know why, but their execution has been poor. They haven't played well enough to be 4-1-1 right now and if it wasn't for Crawford playing as well as he has - they wouldn't be 4-1-1 right now.

The have to tighten things - PP and passing drills are needed.

Hopefully Schmaltz is back next game, and hopefully he resembles the same guy we saw before he got his bell rung.

I think you both make valid points.  The Hawks did not look good against the Wild and the first half of the Pred game.  But, they managed to get one win out of it.  Now, they lead the Central.  So, I guess it is true that even a good team is going to have a crap game every once in awhile.  The PP and passing do need work.  Crawford does not.  The guy is excellent and yet, even he will have a bad game, at some point. 

My main concern at this point is how they are getting outshot.  It is not just a matter of other teams peppering the Hawks' goal with any shot just to drive up their totals, while the Hawks sit back and hesitate to pull the trigger until the perfect shot appears.  They are being outshot because most of the play has been taking place in the Hawks' end; and if the purpose of being in the other team's end isn't to let loose with a volley of shots then I don't understand the game.  For some reason, the Hawks are getting outplayed and it is resulting in more shots on goal for the other team.  I think that is a problem that needs work. 

Someone suggested that is the result of dumping the puck possession game in favor of run and gun.  But, what good does one shot from a run and gun do that is frequently saved without any other activity in that end.  To me, it is not a way to win games.  Maybe they are getting outshot because other teams are too fast and simply get to the puck more and advance and keep it for more shots.  Or, maybe, as ER has suggested, the Hawks' passing is so bad that they aren't able to stay in the offensive end for long, or even get there.  I sure don't know the answer, but I don't like seeing all those lopsided shots on goal totals and possession time in the Hawks' end.  But, hey, they lead the Central, despite their flaws; and, as Bob said, who would have thunk that would be the case at this point.  So, something is working and it is looking pretty good for them.  They just need to continue to evolve their game to whatever perfection they can achieve.  It should be a fun ride. 

I should also add that the fact that despite being outplayed early on by the Preds, they hung around and got better and better until they won convinces me that they don't have an attitude problem.  They may have some problems with personnel that is inferior in some ways; or in execution, but I think they are trying hard to win. 

Edited by jacksalmon

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Unfortunately I missed this one.

Fortunately I caught the Saturday W'hawks v Kelowna game like and The Joker (Jokihariju) looked really good and was instrumental in killing off a 5-3.

Glad for the win and that Sharpie and Saad stepped it up, but these 38SOG nights have to stop.

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LordKOTL said on 51 minutes ago:

Unfortunately I missed this one.

Fortunately I caught the Saturday W'hawks v Kelowna game like and The Joker (Jokihariju) looked really good and was instrumental in killing off a 5-3.

Glad for the win and that Sharpie and Saad stepped it up, but these 38SOG nights have to stop.

You are an astute observer from far away.  What is your take on why the other teams have been dominating the SOG stats? 

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jacksalmon said on 2 hours ago:

You are an astute observer from far away.  What is your take on why the other teams have been dominating the SOG stats? 

Since Schmaltz went down it seems the 2nd line disappeared with respect to puck possession and keeping it pinned in the opposing end.  That coupled with the D being weaker (as-expected), means that even with the emergence of Rutta nullifying the as-yet lacklustre showing of Murphy means Crawford and Forsberg are seeing more rubber than the starting line of the Daytona International Speedway.

I feel like getting Schmaltz will help,  but I think the fix is going to be working on the D.  For starters let's try to see what Rutta can't do--if he can start soaking up minutes from Seabrook that will help.  If one of our LHD's step up, they need to start soaking up minutes from Keith.  Also, get Keith off PP1--maybe even both units.  He only really has helped keeping the puck in-zone, and that's it.  His passing and shooting are not helping the PP much, if at all, and it can save some time and wear-and-tear on him.

No matter how you slice it though, the SA has to drop.  It should, but 36.5 SA/GP is way bad.  If that maintains itself Crawford, in order to post a 2.50 GAA, would have to have a SV% of .932, and that has happened only 3 times by starting goalies with more than 50 games played since the 2005 lockout:  Twice by Thomas (2009 and 2011), and once by Price (2015).  That's a highly unrealistic expectation on a goalie.

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It wasn't all that long ago when the Hawks would occasionally outshoot a team by a wide margin but lose anyway...............I was told how UN-important SOG's were at the time!

It's six games in and there's no doubt they have to tighten things up on D with a few guys still pickin' up the system,the forwards have to come back like they did in the first two games also.

Goals haven't been comin' easy and maybe some of the forwards are cheatin' a little because of it.

 

GO HAWKS!!!!! 

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LordKOTL said on 52 minutes ago:

Since Schmaltz went down it seems the 2nd line disappeared with respect to puck possession and keeping it pinned in the opposing end.  That coupled with the D being weaker (as-expected), means that even with the emergence of Rutta nullifying the as-yet lacklustre showing of Murphy means Crawford and Forsberg are seeing more rubber than the starting line of the Daytona International Speedway.

I feel like getting Schmaltz will help,  but I think the fix is going to be working on the D.  For starters let's try to see what Rutta can't do--if he can start soaking up minutes from Seabrook that will help.  If one of our LHD's step up, they need to start soaking up minutes from Keith.  Also, get Keith off PP1--maybe even both units.  He only really has helped keeping the puck in-zone, and that's it.  His passing and shooting are not helping the PP much, if at all, and it can save some time and wear-and-tear on him.

No matter how you slice it though, the SA has to drop.  It should, but 36.5 SA/GP is way bad.  If that maintains itself Crawford, in order to post a 2.50 GAA, would have to have a SV% of .932, and that has happened only 3 times by starting goalies with more than 50 games played since the 2005 lockout:  Twice by Thomas (2009 and 2011), and once by Price (2015).  That's a highly unrealistic expectation on a goalie.

Hopefully, Schmaltz will return on Wednesday.  The Hawks will need him as the Blues have looked good so far, until they went to Florida for a couple.  But, I suspect in their return home, they will be ready and armed.  It will be a good test for the Hawks to see if they can outshoot a team; or, at least, make the back and forth an even game.  It is somewhat risky to depend on Crawford to make save after save in game after game. 

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hsbob said on 33 minutes ago:

It wasn't all that long ago when the Hawks would occasionally outshoot a team by a wide margin but lose anyway...............I was told how UN-important SOG's were at the time!

It's six games in and there's no doubt they have to tighten things up on D with a few guys still pickin' up the system,the forwards have to come back like they did in the first two games also.

Goals haven't been comin' easy and maybe some of the forwards are cheatin' a little because of it.

 

GO HAWKS!!!!! 

On a game-per-game basis SoG doesn't matter too much.  Once you get to season-long and Career-long timeframes all goalies tend to regress to their mean.  Weak nights nullify the shutouts.  3-goal nights while seeing 25 shots nullify the 1-goal nights seeing 45 shots.  Eventually it all regresses to the mean.

If these high-SA nights were few-and-far between things would be okay...but they're not.  We have 2 games with over 40SA, 3 with over 35, and 5 of 6 over 30.  That's the concerning part.  As jacksalmon stated:

"It is somewhat risky to depend on Crawford to make save after save in game after game."

Which IMHO is a gross understatement.  If the SA/GP doesn't lower, in order to break even with the GF/G we've had since the Columbus game, Crawford and Forsberg would have to average out over the season to a .932.  For a starter (50+ GP) that has only happened 3 times in the past 12 seasons.

They've been beyond splendid early, but the Team D has got to give Crawford and Forsberg some help.

 

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LordKOTL said on 1 hour ago:

On a game-per-game basis SoG doesn't matter too much.  Once you get to season-long and Career-long timeframes all goalies tend to regress to their mean.  Weak nights nullify the shutouts.  3-goal nights while seeing 25 shots nullify the 1-goal nights seeing 45 shots.  Eventually it all regresses to the mean.

If these high-SA nights were few-and-far between things would be okay...but they're not.  We have 2 games with over 40SA, 3 with over 35, and 5 of 6 over 30.  That's the concerning part.  As jacksalmon stated:

"It is somewhat risky to depend on Crawford to make save after save in game after game."

Which IMHO is a gross understatement.  If the SA/GP doesn't lower, in order to break even with the GF/G we've had since the Columbus game, Crawford and Forsberg would have to average out over the season to a .932.  For a starter (50+ GP) that has only happened 3 times in the past 12 seasons.

They've been beyond splendid early, but the Team D has got to give Crawford and Forsberg some help.

 

You da' man with the goalies' stats ever since you got going on your goalie research.  Good stuff!!

On the other hand, the warped SOG stats might not be completely due to weak defense.  It might also due, in part, to malfunction with the forwards in either not coming back to help or keeping the puck in the other team's end and getting some SOG for the Hawks.  I am not astute enough as an observer to be able to spot the problem.  All I know is that in most of the games I have seen, it appears that most of the "action" takes place in the Hawks' defensive end; and, to me, that ain't good. 

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Why are we playing the next game on Wednesday? So many free days between the games. This way our boys might even have time to practice PP. Hopefully they don't, then we really would have nothing to discuss about... Apart from how many minutes Seabs should get per game or if Kane still is a superstar player or not. 

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jacksalmon said on 15 hours ago:

You da' man with the goalies' stats ever since you got going on your goalie research.  Good stuff!!

On the other hand, the warped SOG stats might not be completely due to weak defense.  It might also due, in part, to malfunction with the forwards in either not coming back to help or keeping the puck in the other team's end and getting some SOG for the Hawks.  I am not astute enough as an observer to be able to spot the problem.  All I know is that in most of the games I have seen, it appears that most of the "action" takes place in the Hawks' defensive end; and, to me, that ain't good. 

That's why I emphasize "Team D"  :).  Team O would also include scoring from the D, and Team D has to include any D from the forwards either Traditionally (like Toews, Saad, and the almighty demigod Hossa can provide), but also possession of the puck and not turning it over to create chances.  Much of the team's success in 2010-2014 was because the team possessed the puck so much that the other team simply didn't have the chance to score--which IMHO fed the illusion that Crawford was a product of his team that, since, he hasn't fully been able to shirk in spite of all of the hard evidence to the contrary.  Since 2015 the team D has tanked in that respect. 

The biggest issues is that even though what Bob says is essentially correct: in an individual game it doesn't matter, the more games you play, the more stuff averages out. The highest 50+ game season SV% posted in the cap era (and any era as far as I can find) was Thomas in 2011:  .938, 57 games, 1811 SA, 31.7 SA/GP.  You have to figure that is pretty close to the upper ceiling you can expect from any goaltender over the season.  Crawford's sitting at .960 right now.  That is *going* to go down.  If Crawford pegs a .960 over a 50+game season, you might as well just give him both Toews AND Kane's contracts, and clear out a space in the HHoF. :)  (and, between you and I, if he manged to actually pull off such a feat, there would still be eunuchs and butt-knockers out there calling him average :) ).

Thus, it's obvious at this point the aspect of the team that needs to tighten is the Team D--both FWDs and D-men.

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LordKOTL said on 48 minutes ago:

That's why I emphasize "Team D"  :).  Team O would also include scoring from the D, and Team D has to include any D from the forwards either Traditionally (like Toews, Saad, and the almighty demigod Hossa can provide), but also possession of the puck and not turning it over to create chances.  Much of the team's success in 2010-2014 was because the team possessed the puck so much that the other team simply didn't have the chance to score--which IMHO fed the illusion that Crawford was a product of his team that, since, he hasn't fully been able to shirk in spite of all of the hard evidence to the contrary.  Since 2015 the team D has tanked in that respect. 

The biggest issues is that even though what Bob says is essentially correct: in an individual game it doesn't matter, the more games you play, the more stuff averages out. The highest 50+ game season SV% posted in the cap era (and any era as far as I can find) was Thomas in 2011:  .938, 57 games, 1811 SA, 31.7 SA/GP.  You have to figure that is pretty close to the upper ceiling you can expect from any goaltender over the season.  Crawford's sitting at .960 right now.  That is *going* to go down.  If Crawford pegs a .960 over a 50+game season, you might as well just give him both Toews AND Kane's contracts, and clear out a space in the HHoF. :)  (and, between you and I, if he manged to actually pull off such a feat, there would still be eunuchs and butt-knockers out there calling him average :) ).

Thus, it's obvious at this point the aspect of the team that needs to tighten is the Team D--both FWDs and D-men.

Thanks for the SV% numbers on Thomas and Crawford.  It'll give me something to keep an eye on this season. 

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jacksalmon said on 3 hours ago:

Thanks for the SV% numbers on Thomas and Crawford.  It'll give me something to keep an eye on this season. 

Yep.  My "gauge" for Crawford is about 60gms, and a .920.  I think that's reasonable.  It's slightly higher than his career average, but still good for top-10.  IMHO anything much more might be unreasonable--like expecting Toews to pot 40G, or Seabrook winning the Norris.

But even with those numbers, the rest of the team has to ante up.  If Saad goes on a goal binge and manages to pot 50 (unreasonable expectation, I know), that's great for him, but if the rest of the team isn't good...we're still going nowhere fast.

The 1st line has to keep rolling.  Crawford/Forsberg have to keep rolling.  Team D needs to step it up.  If all that happens the 'hawks will be a force to be reckoned with...and everything that is good comes from that :D

 

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LordKOTL said on 23 hours ago:

Yep.  My "gauge" for Crawford is about 60gms, and a .920.  I think that's reasonable.  It's slightly higher than his career average, but still good for top-10.  IMHO anything much more might be unreasonable--like expecting Toews to pot 40G, or Seabrook winning the Norris.

But even with those numbers, the rest of the team has to ante up.  If Saad goes on a goal binge and manages to pot 50 (unreasonable expectation, I know), that's great for him, but if the rest of the team isn't good...we're still going nowhere fast.

The 1st line has to keep rolling.  Crawford/Forsberg have to keep rolling.  Team D needs to step it up.  If all that happens the 'hawks will be a force to be reckoned with...and everything that is good comes from that :D

 

As you said, the stats regress to the mean.  But, I looked yesterday at goalie stats and there are 8, or so, goalies with current SV% of ..938 or better as of yesterday.  You got me hooked. 

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jacksalmon said on 2 hours ago:

As you said, the stats regress to the mean.  But, I looked yesterday at goalie stats and there are 8, or so, goalies with current SV% of ..938 or better as of yesterday.  You got me hooked. 

Yep.  Tracking this is going to be fun.  The further Crawford can stay on top, the better.  The more we can knock some other goalie's stats down is going to be good.  It will just pay for all fans to remember that Crawford so far, much like Neuvirth, Bob Ross, Bishop, Quick, etc. are ALL punching way above their weight class thus far.  Don't ride them too hard if they have a game below what they're at *now*.  Use their careers and not less than 1/10th of a season as a gauge. 

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